Unlocking Potential: Embracing Futures Thinking for a More Inclusive Future
- Sai
- May 13, 2024
- 5 min read
Artificial Intelligence, AR/VR Technology, Highly dextrous Humanoid Robots, Ageing Research advancements, among many others. Things that were manifested in Science fiction stories and movies are in early stages of reality. Many entrepreneurs including Elon were fascinated by Science fiction stories of Future like Star Trek among others and went ahead to become the frontrunners in steering us towards the future. We now have functioning mass market snippets of future for each of the fields mentioned owing to efforts of people like Elon. It's important to take this imagination even further. With advancements in GenAI, world's knowledge is just question/prompt away now. The effort between a futuristic thought and an artefact manifesting the thought has now reduced dramatically.
We are at crossroads of next generation technologies shaping our futures. Unlike for earlier technologies we now have resources to ideate about future and present our artefacts. With this the likelihood of future incorporating aspirations of common man now could improve manifold.
We have seen the same with 10's of tech YouTubers becoming a big phenomenon in shaping how companies think about building their next product. The thought leadership of what the next gen tech should aim at in improving their products was earlier with the executives of tech multinational companies. With YouTube democratising content creation, YouTubers were able to persuade/incorporate(through comments as feedback loop) thoughts and aspirations of millions of people into future of tech products. This though is largely limited to common consumer tech devices like, Phones, Laptops among few others.
With futures thinking framework powered by GenAi, we could democratise the thought leadership in almost anything that shapes our future with inputs from lakhs of people simply because the difference between thought to creation is blurred. With many people having interest in the futures, companies would ought to create products that incorporate thoughts and ideals of substantially more people than what was earlier possible.
Futures thinking methodology:
There are 4 things to Futures thinking. Signals, Drivers, Forecasts and Scenarios.
Signals: An early snippet of future in the current world. Could be a new invention, discovery or a very first a certain feat is achieved.
Drivers: Each signal has underlying drivers due to which the signal has become a reality. Increased funding in robotics owing to demographic challenges faced by rich countries in labour shortage could be one driving force for scientists building Humanoid robots. Covid 19 posing health challenge to majority of humanity has fuelled aging and health span research with huge breakthroughs in recent past among many others. All the drivers have direction positive or negative.
Forecasts: Given signals and strength underlying drivers we can see certain signals emerge into reality and become widespread. Signals with weak driving forces tend to fade and we don't see such Signals manifest as widespread reality.
Scenarios: Scenarios are snippets of imaginative future involving how the society interacts with the signals in their day to day activities. These are generally artefacts of future. Movies like Star Trek, Science fiction novels, etc., all come under this category. With ChatGPT we could prompt the GPT with this framework to get structured report about future of anything. With Dalle we could easily create future artefacts in form of images. With GPT we could prompt for unlimited stories about future by twisting and tweaking our prompts. Following was my prompt in nudging Chatgpt write about Future of AI in futures thinking framework. Had a lot of fun with it. Couldn't create sharable link owing to the length of the discussion. It was interesting. However even better you could also have personalised conversations based on your thought process, with slight structure. Prompt:
Futures thinking framework is structured way to write about the future. Following is the Framework. 1. Identify Signals. A Signal is new invention/discovery/phenomena which has future implications. 2. Recognise the drivers behind each signal. Each signal could have multiple driving sources. 3. Develop Forecasts about Future. 4. Envision future possible scenarios in Future. Create Artefacts like short stories, movies about the future. With the above framework in mind, give me results for Future of AI Response:
Using the futures thinking framework, let's explore the future of AI in a structured manner:
1. Identify Signals
Key signals indicating the evolution of AI technology include:
Generative Pre-trained Transformer (GPT) Models: These powerful language models demonstrate advanced capabilities in natural language processing and understanding.
Autonomous Vehicle Technology: Ongoing innovations and real-world testing of self-driving cars highlight progress in computer vision, sensor technology, and machine learning.
AI in Drug Discovery: AI algorithms are being increasingly utilized to predict molecular interactions faster than traditional methods, hinting at a future where AI drastically accelerates medical research.
2. Recognize the Drivers Behind Each Signal
Multiple drivers can be identified for each signal:
Technological Advancements: Enhanced hardware capabilities, like GPUs and specialized AI processors, have greatly increased the computational power available for complex AI tasks.
Economic Incentives: The potential for automation in various fields, from driving to drug discovery, drives investments and research in AI technologies.
Societal Needs: Challenges such as health crises, climate change, and sustainable development demands are accelerating the adoption of AI to find solutions more efficiently and effectively.
3. Develop Forecasts about the Future
Based on the identified signals and their drivers, several forecasts can be made:
Ubiquitous AI Integration: AI is expected to become a fundamental part of daily life, enhancing areas from personalized education to healthcare through improved efficiency and customization.
Policy and Governance Evolution: As AI integration deepens, there will likely be a significant expansion in AI-related policies and governance structures to ensure its safe and ethical utilization.
AI-driven Innovation in Sustainability: AI is anticipated to lead to innovations in energy efficiency, resource management, and climate prediction, contributing directly to sustainable global practices.
4. Envision Future Possible Scenarios
Several potential scenarios are envisioned:
Short story "The AI Mediator": In a future where AI systems facilitate negotiations and conflict resolution, an AI mediator successfully prevents a potential international conflict over water resources, showcasing AI’s role in global peacekeeping.
"The Last Artisan": This film explores a world where all crafts and artworks are created by AI, following the journey of the last human artisan struggling to preserve human creativity.
Interactive VR Experience "Day in the Life 2050": Users experience a day in the future dominated by AI, navigating through a world where AI assistants plan their day, autonomous vehicles transport them, and AI doctors manage their health.
These artefacts provide vivid, engaging ways to explore potential futures shaped by AI, helping stakeholders understand and prepare for the changes that AI might bring. One create an entire fiction novel just by dwell more into any of the Scenario with further prompts. I would like you to try the same and let me know what kind of futures possibilities you've discovered! Onwards
Sai
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